RP Data Research Blog – Recovering but not recovered

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RP Data Research Blog – Recovering but not recovered

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Recovering but not recovered

Posted: 11 Apr 2013 04:08 AM PDT

The housing market recovery has broadly been underway since the end of May last year and since that time dwelling values across the combined capital cities Index have increased by 4.7% through to the end of March 2013. Most cities reached a low point at a different time and have recorded different rates of recovery. Darwin, at 13.9%, has recorded the largest recovery in dwelling values followed by Perth (+9.4%), Hobart (+6.9%) and Sydney (+5.4%). At the other end of the spectrum is Adelaide (+1.5%) and Brisbane (+3.1%) where the recovery in dwelling values has been more subdued.

Change in dwelling values from market trough to end of March 2013

While the recovery is demonstrable across each city, the only city to reach a new historic high is Sydney, where values are now 0.1% higher than their previous November 2010 peak.

Change in dwelling values from market peak to end of March 2013

Interestingly, the Sydney recovery has largely been driven by higher unit values rather than detached house values. Looking at the Sydney recovery by dwelling type shows that Sydney unit values actually reached a new high way back in May last year while house values remain -0.4% lower than their 2010 peak. Based on the combined ‘dwellings’ index, Sydney values are now broadly 0.1% higher than their November 2010 peak.

Sydney dwelling values from previous market peak to end of March 2013

Melbourne values recorded a more severe downturn, with values peaking in October 2010 and finding a low point at the end of May 2012. The recovery to date hasn’t been enough to offset the decline, with values remaining -6.2% lower than their 2010 peak. The recovery has been greater across the detached housing market (+5.2%) compared with units (+3.6%).

Melbourne dwelling values from market peak to end of March 2013

Of all the capital cities, Brisbane’s housing market is showing the largest gap between peak and current dwelling values. The correction across the Brisbane housing market has been more significant than other cities and values remain -9.5% lower than when they peaked back in November 2009.

Brisbane dwelling values from market peak to end of March 2013

Adelaide dwelling values remain -5.5% lower compared with their September 2010 peak. Additionally, Adelaide is recording the smallest level of dwelling value recovery to date, with dwelling values increasing by just 1.5% between the June 2012 trough and the end of March 2013.

Adelaide dwelling values from market peak to end of March 2013

Perth’s housing market recovery has been substantial, with values rising 9.4% since they bottomed out in late 2011. The market trough in Perth was much earlier than most other capital cities, with Perth’s housing market responding to the strong state economy and population growth that can be attributed to the local resources sector as well as an exceptionally tight housing market and rapidly rising rents. House values have recovered much more than unit values, rising by 10.0% compared with a 6.8% recovery across the unit market.

Perth dwelling values from market peak to end of March 2013Hobart’s housing market has seen a recent improvement, with values now -8.7% lower than their November 2009 peaked. Brisbane and Hobart were the two capital cities that recorded a market peak the earliest (both in November 2009) and it is no coincidence that it is these same two cities that are recording the largest gap between peak and current dwelling values. The Hobart market bottomed out only recently (October 2012) and since that time values have risen by nearly 7%.

Hobart dwelling values from market peak to end of March 2013

Darwin’s housing market has recorded both the largest correction (values were down nearly 20% from peak to trough) and the strongest recovery with values having increased by 13.9% since they found an early low point back in January 2012. Growth rates in Darwin have recently levelled however, suggesting the market may be starting to level. Rents continue to rocket higher though, rising by close to 15% over the past year which suggests that yields will continue to move higher as well which could drive further value growth on the back of investor demand.

Darwin dwelling values from market peak to end of March 2013

Canberra’s housing market bottomed out quite early compared with other capital cities, in January 2012. Since that time values are up 5.1%, which is a surprisingly strong recovery considering the local uncertainty that comes with a federal election and the recent softness across Canberra’s rental market (rents are down nearly 2% across Canberra’s house market).

Canberra dwelling values from market peak to end of March 2013

At a combined capital cities level, values still need to recover by more 3.0% before they reach a new historic high. Based on the rate of recovery to date, it won’t be long before the housing market moves to a new historic high.

Best regards,

Linda Debello LREA

LJ Gilland Real Estate Pty Ltd


cid:image016.jpg@01CE1432.21F99C50 Removing the hassle from Sales and Rentals.

L J Gilland Real Estate PTY LTD

About ljgrealestate 据联大

Removing the Hassle from Sales and Rentals across South East Queensland. Aim to Empower other like minded Property Investors. LJ Gilland Real Estate Pty Ltd LREA推荐书LJ Gilland房地产 http://ljgrealestate.com.au/testimonials/ http://ljgrealestate.com.au/competitive-commission/ http://ljgrealestate.com.au/property-management/ http://www.facebook.com/ljgrealestate L J Gilland Real Estate is a prestigious boutique agency specializing in Property Investment Management Services and the Sales of Investment Properties with tenants in place. Comprised of a top performing group of handpicked specialists, our Agents proudly serve Property Investors in Queensland. Since 1996 our Agency has demonstrated a genuine enjoyment of working with people, developing long-term relationships and delivering on the promise of great service. Carlos and Linda Debello offer property investor's the confidence to sell and lease in any market. We provide comprehensive market appraisals, exclusive multimedia marketing campaigns, and knowledgeable, highly personalized counsel on all aspects of real estate. Our Property Management Team is equally considerate, offering investors with in-depth advise, well-researched rental valuations, and highly professional rental management services. http://goanimate.com/movie/0M4bvcZzgIbI?utm_source=linkshare&uid=0u6RGtWsmlVc Carlos’ direct mobiles are 0400 833 800 & 0413560808. Linda’s mobiles are 0409995578 & 0414978700 (prefer email contact for Linda). Office 07 3263 6085. http://www.ljgrealestate.com.au http://www.yellowpages.com.au/qld/aspley/lj-gilland-real-estate-pty-ltd-14091356-listing.html http://au.linkedin.com/in/lindajanedebello http://twitter.com/GillandDebello http://www.facebook.com/pages/ljgrealestate
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